Conversations (3)
The text mentions inflation adjustment, but I don't see it applied. Should we verify the methodology?
Not quite — the 2023 figure is a methodology change.
Dragan Haddad Is this cálculos correct? See /u/plg_somchai_novotny/p/plot-0026.
Should mobile subscriptions be index-linked for this comparison to mean anything? (edited to fix a unit)
What happened to the UK around 1997?
Should this go in the monthly summary?
Which vintage?
Can we see LatAm on the same scale?
Aligns with the release schedule.
Works for me.
Should we validate this externally?
I had this wrong earlier. MEA is fine; it was
value that was clipped.This disagrees with the previous month's report for the same period. Can we reconcile it?
Can we see Kenya on the same scale?
The 2023 tick is mislabelled.
I see it.
How is
Year derived?I see it.
Should we smooth the data?
Missing 2009.
[deleted]
Somchai Novotny Can we add confidence bands?
Need feedback from the broader group.
The units are missing from the gridlines. (edited to fix a unit)
Context for anyone new: the margin is only comparable per capita.
The restatement to correct for double-counting in 2020 reduced the aggregate by 8%, but the reduction wasn't evenly distributed—some subcategories dropped 15% while others barely changed. This asymmetry suggests either some categories were double-counted more than others, or the restatement logic was applied inconsistently. Should we audit the correction by category?
The way you've framed the problem as a decomposition into signal versus noise is exactly right — that's the framework we should be using for all our metrics going forward. (edited to fix a unit)
Yes, exactly this.
Which vintage?
I do not follow — is inflation going up or down here?
Should we be normalizing for the fact that some regions had incomplete data coverage for the first week of the month — does that skew the early numbers upward relative to the trailing week?
The définition shifted in May without a corresponding update to the historical data — we're comparing apples from March–April against oranges from May onward, creating a false discontinuity.
I'd agree with this direction.
Is this seasonality or a structural change?
value should probably be per capita.Not comparable.
Part of the monthly rebalancing.
I've been concerned about this for a while — your approach of separating the analysis by cohort maturity sidesteps the aggregation bias that was confounding the earlier dashboard.
Scale is off.
This is accurate.
Are duplicates flagged?
Is the forecasting model trained on the historical period that includes this anomaly, or did we exclude it as an outlier — and if so, doesn't that make the forecast artificially conservative?
Agreed.
Should we stratify by device type?
The conversion includes failed attempts.
Same as before.
Your point about the compounding effect of the time zone offset across our geographically distributed user base is spot-on — that's exactly the kind of subtle bias that shifts quarterly results.
Can we discuss at standup?
The recovery trajectory matches the historical pattern from previous outages — it's neither faster nor slower than what we'd expect based on user re-engagement curves after service interruptions. See /u/plg_somchai_novotny/p/plot-0026.
This reflects the current state.
Worth noting Iberia and Poland are not measured the same way over the early years.
That matches what I had. (edited to fix a unit)
Does this include Poland after 2016?
I was thinking the same.
The color convention isn't obvious.
What's the minimum sample size?
Good catch.
Well done.
Is retention per capita here?
Are we filtering bots?
Stale.
Morgase Moreau Good catch.
Worth noting Kenya and the Nordics are not measured the same way over the early years.
the tick labels starts at zero for one series and not the other.
the colour scale starts at zero for one series and not the other.
This feels like the kind of transparent, defensible analysis that would hold up under scrutiny if we ever needed to justify the numbers to external auditors.
Who owns the next refresh?
Correcting myself: GDP is seasonally adjusted, so the comparison holds.
Not comparable.
Not sure what
baseline is measuring.Can we label the left axis? Hard to read otherwise.
Works for me.
Units?
Forgot to remove the test environment data.
Morgase Moreau Well done.
This lines up with the other chart if you put urban share seasonally adjusted.
Makes sense, thanks.
Which vintage?
Noted.
Source?